But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. Jordan McNamara: Like Gaskin, David Johnson is in a cloudy situation after Philip Lindsay drew the starting role in Houston in week 1. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Ricky Watters 20. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his current ADP of RB13 and 20th overall. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. From Weeks 13 through 17, Dobbins received a measly two total targets from quarterback Lamar Jackson. That role may not disappear completely, but the addition of Gio Bernard is a bad sign for Tampa Bay's intentions with Fournette. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Why Bo Jackson is the Most Overrated Player of All Time Even if the split is swapped with Williams as the slight 1A to Gordon's now 1B, achieving a top-12 result will hinge on Gordon missing a chunk of the season. Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. Jamal Lewis 18. Terrell Davis, Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and recently, Dalvin Cook all took over a season of play to return to form if they did at all. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Tevin Coleman is one of those veteran thorns in the sides of young backs to garner touches. He yields passing work to J.D. Overrated at the Oscars: Best Picture winners most out of step with The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. The 2021 season will either change from the norm of what we have seen from Edmonds in the past or a new role where he flourishes with an increase in volume. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. The current regime did not select Robinson. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Edgerrin James 17. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. He showed elite promise in his rookie year and followed it up with a top 10 season despite a high ankle sprain limiting his ascension. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. It probably comes off as harsh to call Montgomery one of the most overrated running backs of the past decade, but he is. If Gordon's injury is extended, Williams could be appropriately priced, but until there is more information, he is an avoid at cost. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Andy Hicks: If people are using a fourth or fifth-round pick on Myles Gaskin, they will end up disappointed. Jeff Haseley: The Dolphins have a three-headed approach to the running back position this year. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. But even if he doesnt, this backfield could be a closer split than many think. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Matt Waldman: Gaskin displayed underrated skills last year and has become a favorite sleeper in the fantasy community. Most overrated qbs of all time | Acrylic Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB19. In Week 16 of the 2011 season, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL and returned as the #1 overall running back in 2012. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. The Silence of the Lambs (1991) - Director: Jonathan Demme. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Brown should have a role, most likely on early downs and at the goal-line, which would sink Gaskins chances of living up to his ADP. Jerome Bettis 16. Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. Adding another trip around the sun and competition from two young, capable running backs is the recipe for the bottom to fall out for Gordon. However, with Smith out of town, gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center, and sophomore running back Antonio Gibson expected to step up, McKissic isnt someone that will have much value in most fantasy leagues. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). His career marks are high because he played long (13 yrs) and was consistent. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Jim Brown 2. While 3,000 hits is nothing to scoff at, his place as an. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. The current regime did not select Robinson. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. Curtis Martin 11. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. Jeff Haseley: Chase Edmonds scored in five different games in 2020, exceeding eight carries in a game only twice in 15 qualifying games. However, the floor is lower than the surrounding running backs in cost. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. Lambertville, Michigan 48144. most overrated running backs of all time(734) 854-2000 Jamal Lewis rushed for nearly 3,400 yards in the first two seasons back from his ACL tear. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. J.D. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. That enthusiasm should be tempered because Canada was the offensive coordinator fired by LSU before LSU hired Joe Brady, who oversaw Joe Burrow's historic season. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Top 10 Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time. Victoria Geary: Dobbins is an elite talent on the best rushing offense in the NFL. His value is trending in the wrong direction. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. David Montgomery looked the part of a workhorse profile after Cohen left the lineup, and Khalil Herbert is a rookie to watch for upward mobility on the depth chart. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Barry Sanders 3. Flick's Package Liquor Inc. PO Box 221 3320 Sterns Rd. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. My, my, how the game has changed. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. World's top 10 most overrated football players in history This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. Links to similar discussions on other positions: The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. NFL draft 2022 running back projections - Rankings, historical comps His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. His current draft price is almost his upside. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. His career YPC was 3.9. It's not entirely his fault. Never a good idea. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Gary Davenport: Drafting an RB1 based on wishful thinking isn't an ideal strategy, yet Williams keeps getting picked inside the top-12 at his position. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. Marshall Faulk 7. There is no other way to explain a mid-range RB3 price when he is in one of the worst possible situations in Houston. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Compared to Jim Brown (5.2 YPC), Larry Csonka (4.3 YPC), and Earl Campbell (4.3 YPC). Even if Winston wins the competition and keeps the New Orleans passing game afloat, Kamara will have a hard time repeating last year's 21 total touchdowns. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot).